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Buggins’ turn

It almost seems a waste of energy to write about the new housing minister. Eight in eight years have passed through the post, often on their way to greater things – if becoming chairman of the Tory party, principle advisor to the PM or Brexit Secretary count as advancement. Labour’s Sarah Jones has summed up yesterday’s man Dominic Raab’s six months of failure very effectively here.

It sometimes looks like the choice is done by sticking a pin in a list of Tory MPs who don’t know anything much about housing. Since 2010 characters called Prisk, Hopkins, Barwell, Sharma and Raab have all held the job for less than a year. Scarcely enough time to wring your hands about homelessness on the streets, meet David Orr of the NHF to discuss solving the housing crisis, and make the same recycled ‘keynote’ speech at the CIH Conference. Move along, nothing to see here. Mind you, as Grant Shapps and Brandon Lewis both managed around 2 years, it might be that high turnover is to be encouraged.

It must be admitted that tenure of the post was not much longer under Labour. Charlie Falconer, Jeff Rooker, Caroline Flint, Margaret Beckett and John Healey all served less than a year in the Ministerial job. It wasn’t Healey’s fault of course, he did a lot in a short time before Labour lost in 2010 and has shown considerable stickability in the shadow role since. Yvette Cooper turns out to be the longest-serving housing minister since 1997, followed by destroyer Shapps and Labour’s first, Hilary Armstrong.

So will Kit Malthouse soon be on his bike or will he last longer? Personally, I hope he suffers the same fate as John Healey – losing the job because of an electoral defeat.

Various news outlets have reported on his little bit of housing history. Huffpost  reports that he oversaw a hostile zero tolerance approach to rough sleeping when he was deputy leader of Westminster Council 15 years ago – the famous period when the council hosed down the streets to make them more uncomfortable for the homeless. His last job saw him in charge of the roll-out of Universal Credit, so competence is unlikely to be on his list of talents.

82098948

Kit Malthouse with some other chap at City Hall (from KM website).

I have no personal experience of the gentleman, but it is recorded that he was the councillor who negotiated the settlement with Dame Shirley Porter in 2004 after she was ‘fined’ £42million (including surcharges, interest and costs) by the district auditor for the gerrymandering ‘Homes for Votes’ scandal. Magically, it was decided that she would only pay £12million. Most Universal Credit recipients would be happy to get £30 of relief from Mr Malthouse let alone £30million.

Mr Malthouse has a blog, which is a must-read if you have trouble sleeping in this humid weather. Most notably, instead of skyscrapers he argues for building underground. He has little to say on housing but takes a strong ‘localist’ stance on planning, campaigning to make sure that no permissions would be granted outside the envelope of approved local and neighbourhood plans (he doen’t think much of planning inspectors and their decisions). To give him some credit, given his previous ‘zero tolerance’ approach to homelessness, in 2007 he became an early supporter of what is now known as ‘Housing First’.

I hold out little hope for a significant change in direction or even that Mr Malthouse will still be in post to attend next June’s CIH conference. The odds are still against, but I harbour a dream that the 2019 keynote speech will be made by the new Secretary of State for Housing John Healey.

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Shifting Housing’s Overton Window

It’s a sign of a remarkable comeback for social housing that the new CIH report ‘Rethinking Social Housing’ contains few surprises. Only 3 years ago this report would have seemed a radical contradiction of the dominant narrative. It probably would have been attacked for lacking realism and harking back to the long lost 1970s.

Social housing reached its nadir around and after the 2015 General Election. It was unaffordable, past its sell-by date, consigned to the history books as the government and most of the housing industry focused their concerns on ‘the only game in town’, building homes that did not require grant, at significantly higher ‘Affordable rents’ or market prices, pushing forward with policies (right to buy, ‘conversions’, market sales) that would feed the development programme.

Housing’s ‘Overton window’ – the range of ideas tolerated in public discourse – had become very narrow indeed and those of us who argued for social housing were made to feel oddballs well outside mainstream opinion. So it was that the very expensive National Housing Federation ‘Homes for Britain’ campaign prior to the 2015 Election choked on the words social housing. Joining the newly formed SHOUT campaign for social housing felt like heading upstream without a paddle.

So, what explains the turn-round between then and now, when the government is allocating funds specifically for new social housing, everyone is reviewing and rethinking the purpose of social housing – coming to the conclusion that it is an essential component of a fair and functioning housing market – and CIH feels confident enough to describe it as ‘a pillar of the welfare state’ without provoking guffaws of laughter?

Here are several possible factors. First, the refusal of tenants, campaigners, many people working at the grassroots in housing, and a few brave housing leaders, to stop banging the drum for genuinely affordable (as opposed to joke affordable) housing. Second, over-reaching by the Tories so their housing policies and the consequent rise in homelessness just confirmed their lack of empathy for poor and disadvantaged people. Third, the advent of unashamedly pro-social housing Jeremy Corbyn to the leadership, which changed the nature of the debate in the Labour Party. Fourth, the general public, who did not obey the rules of the Overton window because they never lost sight of the simple idea that council housing was a good thing – even if they also thought it was subsidised and not for them. And fifth, Grenfell, which changed everything.

The new CIH report reflects a lot of background work with tenants and the sector and demonstrates that social housing is firmly back within the spectrum of acceptable thought. It identifies 3 key themes:

  • Social housing, its affordability and the security it offers to people living there, are highly valued
  • It has much wider value by allowing residents to prosper and thrive, through its contribution to tackling poverty, the success of local and national economies, and individual health and well-being
  • However, there is stigma attached to social housing as a ‘product’ and to the organisations providing it and the people living in it

And so,

“Social housing has a unique and positive part to play in housing people, helping to create thriving, mixed communities, and meeting needs that the market will not. Done right it does great things. But it isn’t always the case that homes and neighbourhoods are well managed and well maintained and it’s important that we own and address this.

“It’s time to reclaim the role of social housing as a pillar of the society we want to be, along with free health care and education – and it must be at the centre of government plans to solve the housing crisis. And, having ‘reclaimed’ the role of social housing, we need to push on – creating an ambitious vision of what a plentiful supply of social housing can do help people thrive in communities that prosper.”

Some of the information in the report might surprise a general reader. For example, registered unemployment amongst social housing tenants is only 8%. The vast majority are either in work, retired or unable to work due to physical or mental disability or carers. Homeless people also take up around a quarter of lettings, far fewer than might be imagined.

The report contains a helpful discussion of the question ‘who is social housing for?’ based on a wide range of views from the public and the sector. The answer seems to be that ideally people want the sector to be ‘for anyone’ but that pragmatically it will remain highly rationed for many years to come. Given the vital role that security of tenure plays in enabling people to become established in their neighbourhood and having a platform on which to build their future, it is remarkable to note that there are still widely differing views on whether social housing should be a long term solution or, given scarcity, a short-term, reviewable, stepping stone.

CIH look forward by identifying six areas for further action, with some detailed proposals attached to each – including, for example, a call to suspend the right to buy which might become the headline proposal for the report.

  1. there should be a new definition of social housing to get away from the current confusion.
  2. tenants must have a greater voice.
  3. there should be an increase in the supply of ‘genuinely affordable’ homes.
  4. everyone should be able to afford a place to call home, with a move towards income-related rent-setting.
  5. homes and neighbourhoods should be better managed.
  6. there should be greater efforts to challenge the stigma and stereotyping attached to social housing.

It’s a reasonable agenda. And given the general  drift back to accepting the importance of social housing it will be fascinating to see how far the government is willing to go when it releases its Green Paper before the summer recess.

 

 

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When will the LGA say ‘enough is enough’?

<span class="has-inline-color has-accent-color"><strong>by Monimbo</strong></span>
by Monimbo

Senior housing policy expert writing under a pseudonym.

Another statement from the Chancellor, another failure to recognise the looming crisis in local government spending. It’s less than a week since the National Audit Office issued its report on the financial state of local councils, which even the LGA acknowledged was a ‘stark’ warning. But although the LGA says the government must ‘urgently address’ the funding gap, complaining that councils face a cliff-edge, the Chancellor obviously believes that most councils will simply put the brakes on and avert a catastrophe, and if a few overshoot the cliff-edge he can blame it on their incompetence.

The NAO report shows that councils are in a hard game of robbing Peter to pay Paul. Councillors know that, come what may, they have to try to keep social care functioning, the bins being emptied and the streets lit at night. Some of these services have even seen a small increase in funding (children’s care has been increased by 3.2% in real terms). The consequences for other areas of council work are indeed stark, and housing is one of them.

The report shows that spending in two areas – planning and development and housing services – fell respectively by almost 53% and 46% in real terms over the period 2010/11-2016/17. These two broad service areas have been those hit hardest by reductions in funding under the coalition and Tory governments.

But these figures hide even bigger falls in some aspects of those services. For example, spending on housing-related support has fallen by 69%. Many of these services met a range of needs, including those of homeless clients. Of course they include several services that help people in groups that the government claims to prioritise, such as those with mental health problems or who are victims of domestic violence. They provide the help that numbers of people need to sustain their tenancies and avoid homelessness. Spending on private sector renewal is another victim – it has been cut by 63%. Development control – which among other things helps secure a flow of housing land for new building – has suffered a 53% cut. Expenditure on temporary accommodation, however, has rocketed by 57%, because most councils that don’t have enough homes for the homeless are inevitably often forced to place them in high-cost private lettings.

Councils will soon face higher costs, because they will take on a new set of obligations when the Homelessness Reduction Act takes effect in April. The legislation is welcome, but massively underfunded: some £61 million is being allocated outside London and £11 million in the capital. No one thinks this is enough.

Council housing, in the meantime, as not been subject to the same cuts because it is paid for entirely from tenants’ rents. But of course it has been pushed to absorb more and more costs of services that should be paid from general funds, with tenants seeing service reductions as a result. Councils can hardly be blamed for looking for ever more ingenuous ways to cross-subsidise services but neither should tenants be expected to be complacent about what their rents are used for.

One leader of a local government body, Jonathan Carr-West of the Local Government Information Unit, has spoken up: ‘Councils are running out of money fast’ he says, ‘We have already seen one county council go under and others may soon follow unless the government takes action now’. The LGA wrings its hands and urges the government ‘to provide the financial sustainability and certainty needed to protect the local services our communities rely on’. John McDonnell got it right when he said in response to the Chancellor, ‘We face – in every public service – a crisis on a scale we’ve never seen before… Our public services are at breaking point and many of our local councils are near bankruptcy’. He criticised the ‘indefensible spectacle’ of a chancellor ‘failing to lift a finger’ to help struggling local authorities. From Philip Hammond the looming catastrophe brought not a single word.

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Right to buy is not the biggest reason for the fall in social renting

<span class="has-inline-color has-accent-color"><strong>by Monimbo</strong></span>
by Monimbo

Senior housing policy expert writing under a pseudonym.

Why did the number of homes let at social rents fall by 150,000 in the last five years? Surprisingly, although right to buy was a big factor, it wasn’t the biggest. From April 2012 until the same month in 2017, right to buy led to 55,000 council houses sales and 20,000 by housing associations (the latter is because of the ‘preserved’ right to buy kept by tenants if their homes are transferred to a new landlord). So half the net loss can be explained by such sales.

But there were two much bigger factors behind this recent assessment by the Chartered Institute of Housing of the losses in social rented stock. First, new build would easily have offset right to buy sales if output of social rented homes had continued at the same rate as in the previous four years: from 2008/09-2011/12, thanks to the investment made under Labour’s National Affordable Housing Programme (NAHP), 142,000 social rented homes were built, over 35,000 per year. Had this continued, social landlords would have built two new homes at social rent for every one sold, even after right to buy was ‘reinvigorated’ with bigger discounts from April 2012. As it is, the Tories are clearly poised to fail in their much more limited promise to replace the extra houses sold as a result of the right to buy being ‘reinvigorated’, and of course the replacements are all likely to be let at higher, ‘affordable’ rents.

Nevertheless, some new homes are being built for social rent. Adding together new homes built by housing associations and by local authorities, these total just over 50,000 over the five years. Not only is this far lower than achieved under Labour’s NAHP but numbers are now down to only 5,000 per year, with little prospect of their being revived. So in mathematical terms the biggest reason for the loss of social rented homes is failure to build: if Labour had still been in power, continuing a similar programme to its NAHP, around 125,000 more social rented homes would have been built than has been achieved by the coalition/Tory governments.

Increase in stock of ‘affordable’ rented homes, 2012-2017

Source: HCA, Private registered provider social housing stock in England 2016-2017.

So selling off the stock wasn’t the biggest reason for the loss of social rented homes, it was the failure to build. Oddly enough, right to buy wasn’t even the second biggest reason. The candidate for this status can be seen in the graph. From 2011 onwards, the coalition government set out to make a heavy dent in the provision of social rented housing in two ways. First, as we have seen, it built homes for ‘affordable’ rent instead of social rent, constructing about 90,000 up to April 2017. But second, it converted homes from social rent to ‘affordable’ rent at an even faster pace, with 102,000 conversions in total by the same date (shown purple in the graph, the green columns show the total AR stock from conversions plus new build). It forced associations to do this to give them extra rental income, to offset the loss of government grant (it fell from around £60,000 per new home built under Labour to less than £20,000 under the Tories). This is therefore easily the second most important factor in the decline of social rent.

Right to buy, whether for councils or housing association properties, is therefore the third biggest factor. But even this isn’t the whole story: both councils and housing associations have been demolishing social rented stock (for example, in regeneration schemes), and these losses run at around 4,000 per year.

In addition to these recent attacks on the social rented stock, it faces two more potential dangers: the new right to buy for housing association tenants, and the enforced sales of ‘high value’ council properties. At the moment, the first of these is only going ahead as a pilot scheme in the West Midlands, and will be funded by government. But the prospect of enforced sales of council houses, now less likely after the Grenfell Tower disaster, is still ‘on the books’ and is inhibiting many councils from taking on more ambitious investment plans. If right to buy for association tenants were to go ahead across the country, someone would have to fund the discounts and at the moment the only money potentially available is from forcing councils to sell off their better stock.

In this situation, Labour’s priorities should be clear: not only does it need an even more ambitious new build programme than it had when it was last in power, but this needs to focus strongly on building for social rent, as John Healey has promised. And the haemorrhaging of the existing stock must be halted too. This will mean, first, either suspending council tenants’ right to buy or at the very least making the discounts they receive much less attractive; second, rescinding the promise to housing association tenants that they can buy their homes and calling off ‘high value’ council sales; third, ending the conversion of properties to higher rents and, finally, ensuring that any regeneration schemes provide for at least one-for-one replacement of any social rented homes that are to be demolished.

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No new money will be made available for post-Grenfell works

<span class="has-inline-color has-accent-color"><strong>by Monimbo</strong></span>
by Monimbo

Senior housing policy expert writing under a pseudonym.

“Fund it yourselves” was the clear message from communities secretary Sajid Javid to the Communities Select Committee and then again in response to an emergency question from John Healey last Thursday. Red Brick had already outlined the options available to the government to help authorities make their tower blocks safe, and before that we called on the government to foot the bill. Javid has now made it clear he has no intention of doing so.

Of course he found some warm words with which to give the impression he was bending over backwards to help. “What we will absolutely do with every local authority,” he said to the committee, “is work with them closely and make sure that, through that work with them and the financial assistance that we can provide and the financial flexibilities, they are able to pay for any essential works that they deem necessary.” But he went on to say “we are not planning grants” and that his assistance is limited to “financial flexibilities that can provide the funding.”

The options appear to be twofold. Either councils will be allowed to borrow more, if they would otherwise hit the borrowing caps that apply to their council housing finances. Or they will be allowed to make transfers from their General Funds, for example from reserves, to bolster their Housing Revenue Accounts. The latter could mean that council tenants are not burdened with extra costs, unless of course (as seems likely) such a transfer only covers part of the costs of fire prevention work, and some still has to be paid from rental income. The first option, relaxed borrowing caps, offers nothing to councils at all, except the ability to spend more of their tenants’ money. Either way, local people – whether just tenants or a combination of tenants and council taxpayers (which include tenants too, of course) – will be meeting the cost of the work, not central government. The “financial assistance that we can provide” turns out to be zilch.

These options are those foreseen by Red Brick in July. We said that, in all probability, the government would force councils to pay for remedial works from tenants’ rents, perhaps offering “help” in the form of looser borrowing caps or (we speculated) permission to raise rents. Even if extra subsidy were offered in the form of grant, we suggested that the government would simply take this from its existing capital programmes. In the event, it’s not even going that far.

Why is this important? Council housing accounts are already under severe pressure. A four-year period of compulsory rent cuts still has two years to run, arrears are shooting up as universal credit and other ‘welfare reforms’ are rolled out, right to buy continues apace and councils are still faced with the threat of having to sell off their highest value properties, even though this may well now not happen. Furthermore, councils have already been told there will be no more government money to keep houses at the Decent Homes Standard, even though a stubborn 15% of the stock has failed the standard over the last four years. If they divert money to post-Grenfell safety works, this will almost certainly be at the expense of their obligation to meet the DHS.

Furthermore, it is only a short time since the prime minister was promising a new generation of council houses. For the councils that have a significant volume of post-Grenfell work, the pressures on rental income that were already intense look set to get worse. Now that Sajid Javid has explained that his “flexibilities” will offer them no extra cash, the prime ministerial promise looks vacuous.

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Why doesn’t Kensington & Chelsea council want to assume direct management control of its own housing stock?

By Ross Fraser

In the aftermath of the Grenfell Tower fire, many local residents expressed the view that the outsourcing of housing management and (in part) major works programmes to the KCTMO had contributed to the disaster.  They also called for the TMO to be wound up.

Residents were clear, and continue to insist, that they want the council’s housing stock to be managed directly by the council.   They believe that direct political control of the housing stock by elected councillors is preferable to any outsourcing arrangement.

Recently, LB Kensington & Chelsea has decided to terminate its management agreement with the KCTMO – which will mean that the TMO is going to be wound up.

However, LB Kensington & Chelsea is now urgently meeting housing associations to determine whether they would be willing to manage part or all of the management of the its housing stock.

This puts housing associations in a difficult position.  They want to do as much as they can to help the victims of Grenfell and others who have also lost their homes as a result of the disaster. But they know – particularly as the public enquiry evolves – that organisations acting against the express wishes of local residents will not be welcome.

Which begs the question: why can’t Kensington & Chelsea recreate a housing department?

There is no shortage of support available.  The highly experienced Barry Quirk is running the council and knows all about housing from his time as Chief Executive at LB Lewisham.  The government has sent in a Task Force to advise the council – which includes the highly-respected Chris Wood who has been Director of Housing in three London boroughs.   They could visit LB Wandsworth to see how an excellent housing department operates.

With council elections set for next year it might be wise for the council to work jointly with local residents – and in complete transparency – to explore a range of options in a measured manner.  Decisions can be made post-election.

But common-sense still seems to be in short supply amongst the council leadership.

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The strange case of a government housing policy that won’t happen

<strong><span class="has-inline-color has-accent-color">by Ross Fraser</span></strong>
by Ross Fraser

Writer on social housing. Research Director at Disruptive Innovators Network. Formerly founding CEO of HouseMark.

Everyone in the sector will recall the surprise late insertion into the 2015 Conservative election manifesto of a policy to extend the right to buy to housing association tenants – funded by the enforced sale of council assets.

I recall chairing a post-election consultation meeting between DCLG and housing association CEOs and local authority directors of housing in July 2015 – when DCLG asked for advice on how to implement the sale of council assets.

Over two years on, DCLG still hasn’t arrived at a formula setting out how it will calculate the value of assets to be disposed by each authority – let alone consult the sector on it.   There is a simple reason for this – developing the formula is extremely difficult and ensuring that all authorities will deem it ‘fair’ is simply impossible.

Then there is the issue that the bulk of asset sales are likely to fall on the London stock-retaining boroughs.  A flat rate formula (requiring say the top 5% in value of all English retained council stock to be sold when vacant) will not raise enough money to fund the extension of right to buy to associations, so any levy is likely to be tougher on London. The authorities most-affected will be Conservative controlled councils such as Kensington & Chelsea, Westminster and Wandsworth.   The leadership of these councils has indicated complete opposition to the government’s proposals.

It is unsurprising, therefore, that there was no reference in the 2017 Conservative election manifesto to housing association right to buy or forced council asset sales.

Post-Grenfell – and DCLG’s apparent refusal to support council (and housing association) reinvestment in fire safety – the concept of forced asset sales has become even more toxic.

Then there is the fact that the policy requires secondary Parliamentary approval before it can be enacted.  The government only has a simple majority with DUP support.  Inside Housing has reported that up to 15 Conservative MPS are prepared to either vote against the measure or abstain – presumably including members whose constituencies fall within Conservative-controlled London boroughs.  And as we have been recently reminded, DUP support for the government’s legislative programme does not extend to social or welfare legislation.

The simple fact is that the forced asset sales measure will never gain Parliamentary approval and will eventually go the way of the now discarded Pay to Stay proposals.    And if there are no forced asset sales there will be no extension of the right to buy to housing association tenants.

My advice to DCLG is ‘come clean’ and formally drop the policy – any further work is a waste of time.  Councils need to know where they stand as, according to senior sources in local government, the uncertainty is holding back their ability to invest in new housing, essential maintenance and fire safety remedial works.   It’s in no-one’s interest to maintain this facade any longer.

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Nobody’s Perfect

<strong><span class="has-inline-color has-accent-color">by Ross Fraser</span></strong>
by Ross Fraser

Writer on social housing. Research Director at Disruptive Innovators Network. Formerly founding CEO of HouseMark.

“Nobody’s perfect” (Closing line of Some Like It Hot: Billy Wilder 1959)

Red Brick readers will be familiar with local authority concerns about the lack of alignment between new housing association supply and the social rent housing they need to meet their statutory obligations to those in housing need.

But the problem goes deeper.  New lets are only 12% of the quantum of social lettings each year.  The government-enforced conversion of social rent lets into higher ‘Affordable Rent’ lets is of equal concern.  Around 25% of housing association lets are now at the (so called) Affordable Rent.

The issue of affordability of housing association lettings is the primary reason that relationships between authorities and associations have deteriorated in recent years.  Yet few authorities have acted proactively by sitting down with housing association partners and defining what affordability means at a local level, across a range of housing products (rental and for sale) and what changes will be required to housing association rent policy to meet local needs.

In Building Bridges – A guide to better partnership working between local authorities and housing associations, we argue that authorities should take the lead by setting up Local Housing Affordability Frameworks which research the topic of affordability on a local authority or sub-regional basis and negotiate a deal with housing associations in respect of new supply and relets.    We propose that the cost of this work is shared equally by authorities and their housing association partners.

Authorities might be surprised by the commitment of the best associations – like Sovereign which refused ‘on principle’ to convert social rent lets into affordable rents or Family Mosaic (now merged with Peabody) which secured grant for Affordable Rent housing and then let it at social rents through extensive cross subsidy.

Building Bridges also explores the vexed issue of nominations and allocations.   Authorities are getting frustrated by associations refusing nominations because the applicant won’t be able to afford a (so called) Affordable Rent.   Authorities are alarmed by those associations that are letting new homes on Rightmove rather than making them available for council nominees.

But associations validly complain that housing registers are being restricted to the very poor or locally connected, when there is clear evidence of housing need and a desire for mobility amongst young professionals and aspirant working families and a need to jointly intervene in the private rented sector.  As a result, housing registers are no longer an accurate measurement of local housing need.  Authorities are failing to work together at a sub-regional level to ensure mobility across housing markets and are (perhaps understandably) focusing their housing strategy on social rent and neglecting demand for other housing ‘products’.

In Building Bridges, we propose a new tech-driven system of allocations (linked to the local affordability framework) that covers all housing products – social rent, Affordable Rent, market rent, low cost home ownership – and ensures a steady supply of appropriate nominations for each.  Again, we propose that the cost of this work is shared equally by authorities and their housing association partners.  We propose that this system is operated collaboratively – and can be led by the authority or, where capacity is limited, by a well-resourced regional housing association.  Midland Heart housing association is already operating such a scheme in the West Midlands.

Yet if authorities have valid criticisms about associations they should realise that its government funding policy that is the primary reason that associations aren’t supplying the homes and allocations that they need.  Sure, there is a quota of associations that see themselves as property developers rather than as part of the social housing sector but the vast majority of associations want a return to government funding of social rent.

Authorities should also recognise that (not everywhere but very often) their performance on planning needs to improve.  Only 41% have local plans which comply with the NHPPF.  And it’s the authorities without compliant plans that are worst offenders in helping bring new sites to market.  Only a minority of authorities have a planning strategy that makes sites available for genuinely affordable housing for five years.   This is completely indefensible.  Clearly, the 40% cut in planning staff in recent years and the loss of ‘enabling’ officers have contributed to this problem but why don’t authorities follow the example of mega-cash-strapped Bristol and increase investment in planning and enabling notwithstanding their financial pressures?

In Building Bridges, we propose a range of actions that authorities can take to maximise social rent housing provision, support development that can cross-subsidise non-grant-funded provision of social rent and combat developer attempts to undermine section 106 agreements – which currently account for 45% of new housing association supply.

The message for authorities in Building Bridges is simple.   If you engage proactively with associations on affordability and allocations, and manage the market, you are more likely to get what you need from associations.   And get your own act together on planning.

Building Bridges – A guide to better partnership working between local authorities and housing associations was published on 25 September by the Chartered Institute of Housing, sponsored by Vivid Homes and the Association of Retained Council Housing and written by Ross Fraser, John Perry and Gemma Duggan.  It is available online.

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Tories try to steal Labour clothes

<span class="has-inline-color has-accent-color"><strong>by Monimbo</strong></span>
by Monimbo

Senior housing policy expert writing under a pseudonym.

Investing in council housing was just one of the new policies that Theresa May pinched from Labour in her disastrous speech. Tackling student debt, mental health, energy prices and even organ donations all figured in the list of stolen policies she launched at the Tory conference. But there was another one that was uniquely Tory: putting an extra £10 billion into Help to Buy loans, which means the scheme will make over £22 billion worth of loans in total, all to help those already well up the income ladder.

How much difference will the £2 billion for social housing over five years actually make? First the positives. It raises the total allocated to ‘affordable’ housing investment to £9 billion over the next few years, or to £10 billion if other bits and pieces are taken into account. But as Red Brick pointed out recently, this compares with over £30 billion in support for the private market, and this was before the Tories added the extra £10 billion for Help to Buy. So the split between affordable and private market investment has just got worse – but at least there is more cash in the ‘affordable’ pot.

Second, it recognises that grant has to be higher if rents are to be kept down. An average grant of £80,000 (based on £2 billion generating 25,000 new homes) is higher than that being paid by Sadiq Khan for ‘London Affordable Rent’ units in the capital and probably quite a bit higher than is needed to build social rented homes elsewhere. Even if the grant level comes down, possibly leading to higher output, it should be enough to deliver a significant number of homes at genuinely affordable rents.

Third, the announcement is coupled with a new policy on rents to kick in in 2020. There are a number of caveats about this too, but at least there is recognition that higher grant alone won’t lead to more investment: stability of rental income is also important.

Now the downsides. First, if it produces 25,000 social rented units, that’s a drop in the bucket compared with the 122,000 already lost (through right to buy, and conversion to higher ‘affordable’ rent) since 2011. If output reaches 5,000 per year, it will only restore social rent building to the level of a couple of years ago and will be well below the peak years of Labour’s National Affordable Housing Programme when social rent output alone reached nearly 40,000 units.

Second, we don’t yet know the mix – will all these be new homes for social rent? Why not also improve the mix of the existing programme, to deliver more social rent (not permitted until this week’s announcement) alongside the other ‘products’? If the government is serious, it needs to re-evaluate its whole programme, not merely tag on a bit of new money.

Third, while this is billed as extra council housing, in practice housing associations are going to be much better placed to use the new money. Relations been them and local councils, already under strain, might be made worse. Why are they better placed? Because with the extra certainty of rising rents after 2020, and their already much greater development capacity, they can bid very competitively for the new cash. Just when collaboration between the two parts of the sector is most needed, it might only happen if the GLA and HCA specifically prioritise bids that give councils a role.

Finally, councils continue to be hamstrung by constraints over which they have little control unless the government steps in and makes additional changes. Right to buy sales continue, with heavy restrictions on the use of receipts (including a prohibition on combining them with grant aid). Borrowing caps are still in place, and councils have suffered more than associations have from the recent curbs on rent increases. Despite the government remaining silent on the promised right to buy for housing association tenants, the threat to force councils to sell their higher value stock hasn’t been removed: this has already made councils cautious about building more houses that might simply have to be sold off. And as well, councils have been hit more than associations by the need to invest in tower blocks following the Grenfell Tower fire, with no promise of government help.

Despite these reservations, the new money is better than a poke in the eye with a bent stick. Even if May’s stated ambition of a ‘new generation of council houses’ is hardly likely to result, it’s much better than the Cameron-Osborne attitude that council housing was obsolete and only served to create more Labour voters. The fact that Labour already has a plan to build much more council housing (and housing at social rents built by associations) is given added credibility by the Tory proposals, inadequate though they are. If the Tories are convinced that a Corbyn government will turn Britain into a ‘failed socialist state’ as Phillip Hammond suggested, why are they so keen to borrow the policy ideas that (according to them) will achieve exactly this outcome?

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Where will the money come from for Labour’s housing plans?

<span class="has-inline-color has-accent-color"><strong>by Monimbo</strong></span>
by Monimbo

Senior housing policy expert writing under a pseudonym.

Labour was under scrutiny at its conference last week for the announcement of supposedly costly policies that can only be funded by tax increases or extra borrowing. One such promise of course was to end PFI contracts, and it was immediately challenged by Margaret Hodge. However, PFI has continuing high costs and big profits are being made by the contractors: whether the annual cost of rescinding contracts will exceed that of leaving them in place will hinge on the terms of compensation. Ditching PFI could well be a good deal.
Labour’s plan to build up to 100,000 social rented homes is another commitment that needs costing but fortunately there is an argument that it could actually save money. In the long term, as shadow minister John Healey has shown (and, as Steve just reminded us, was confirmed by work by Capital Economics for SHOUT), building to let at low rents will pay for itself via savings in housing benefit. The problem is that the savings accrue over 30 years while the capital cost must be borne now.
Fortunately George Osborne pumped such large sums into housing, with commitments running years ahead, that there is plenty of scope for finding this money from the existing housing budget. None of this appeared in the government’s housing white paper earlier this year, of course, nor can we expect to see figures in Sajid Javid’s promised green paper on social housing. But the details – insofar as they can be pieced together from different government sources – are there in the September update of the annual UK Housing Review.
In a new estimate it says that, from now until 2020/21, some £8 billion will be spent on ‘affordable’ housing (mainly Affordable Rent and shared ownership), and most of this money is made up of the two concurrent Affordable Homes Programmes run by the HCA and GLA. However, far more money – the Review estimates it at over £31 billion – will be spent on propping up the private market (see pie chart).

This is largely Osborne’s legacy – a raft of Treasury-led initiatives aimed either at helping builders directly or helping people to buy. Much of the money is in the form of loans or guarantees rather than grants, but the costs are huge and in some cases will run on into the future, growing year-on-year. (This applies to the Help to Buy and Lifetime ISAs, which give cash payments to people when they buy a house, and will cost over £2 billion annually if allowed to continue beyond 2020.)
The NHF has already suggested that the money for Starter Homes (whose original allocation was £2.3 billion) could be better spent on building for social rent, and CIH has proposed that diverting £1.5 billion annually would allow a programme to build 28,000 social rented homes per year. The list of programmes that could be trimmed or ended is impressive, for example (in addition to Starter Homes):

  • Help to Buy equity loans (potentially over £12 billion, the white paper said £8 billion is already committed)
  • Help to Buy and Lifetime ISAs (£4.2 billion to 2020/21)
  • Home Building Fund (loan finance for developers – £3 billion)

Yet rather than cut such programmes, Sajid Javid has promised today (Sunday) that an extra £10 billion will be pumped into Help to Buy. We’ve yet to see how this will work (and if it is really new money), but if added to the total of private sector support it would reduce the proportion of government spending going to affordable housing from 21% to just 16%.
Of course if changes are made by Labour there will be squeals of rage that the party no longer wants to help first-time buyers, but there is surely scope to target the available money on those who really can’t afford a deposit (rather than those who could save the cash by waiting for another year or two) and release some of it for those who have no hope of buying and are stuck paying ever higher private sector rents.
The point is that Osborne’s schemes may have had individual targets but were not part of an overall plan for housing. The February white paper barely mentioned government spending and made no attempt at an overall appraisal of the different programmes. Untouched, Osborne ‘s legacy will represent a huge commitment for an incoming government. The builders will, of course, argue that the incentives are vital to keep them building, but the truth is that while they have become dependent on subsidy their output has hardly grown in proportion to the extra sums being spent each year. Labour’s Treasury team should commit to a review, alongside the housing ministry, of how the total spend of £40 billion plus can be reconfigured. The aim should be to ensure that much more of it is directed to helping those struggling to rent, not only those struggling to buy.